Cap just breaking - any cell here has an ideal chance to develop a massive tornado
Posted by JAC on 5/10/2010, 4:47 pm




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0340 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
 
  VALID 102040Z - 102245Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 147 CONTINUES.
 
  A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEAR
  LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
  SOUTH OF THE 90 KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING EAST
  OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
  HOWEVER...LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
  COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT
  ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER
  ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP
  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UPPER
  60S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
  3000-4000 J/KG.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
  SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR VERY
  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/10/2010


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Kansas, Oklahoma & Arkansas Under-the-Gun - JAC, 5/10/2010, 12:46 pm
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