92L's Dance with the Devil
Posted by JAC on 6/16/2010, 6:28 am
What appears to be a hot-tower that fired around 10PM EDT has sparked redevelopment of 92L.

Visible GOES imagry shows a well developed cirrus canopy this morning with cumulus nimbus cells overshooting.

Dvorak shows core convection firing over the LLC; confirming that convection is not MCS firing in high shear.

The LLC shows a well developed northern flank wind field very characteristic of a TD.

Core has warmed significantly in the last 8 hrs.

AMSU has Best Track at 30-knots.

Most likely will be called a TD by 8AM EDT.

Shear is the big factor now.

Shear is composed of Upper-Level winds running SW to NE on the NW flank of the LLC.

If you think about how a TC ventilates itself, UL winds rotate clockwise.

Therefore the UL winds are in fact conducive for aiding 92L's ventilation.

This is termed an enhanced outflow channel.

There are a number of competing factors that could aid 92L's developemnet or in fact quickly kill it.

If hot-towers continue to fire, the updraft generated by them will push aside the UL jet enough to keep it from getting over the LLC.

However, if convection dies off, then the jet will be able to find its way over the LLC and convection and blow off the tops of the cells and the cirrus canopy.

This would reduce 92L to a naked swirl and mostly likely it won't recover.

Today is a critical day for 92L.

If it survives, I think once it gets to 15N 55W, we could see a significant ramp up.

As a side note, I am wondering if the lack of QSCAT data may be a big factor in the models not doing a good job this year of accurately forecasting genesis.



















207
In this thread:
92L's Dance with the Devil - JAC, 6/16/2010, 6:28 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.