Re: Entire Caribbean Theta-E Pool is Beginning to Rotate - We are Close.
Posted by JAC on 6/23/2010, 10:43 pm
Its wide, so it is slow to develop.

It is going to depend a lot on if and where strong convection fires up.

Need to watch overnight for very high rain-rate cells, AKA hot-towers.

What happens is there is a localized updraft that sucks up the theta-e air into the upper atmosphere.

This causes the very moist and hot air (technical term is high theta-e) to suddenly condense.

When it condenses in the upper atmosphere, somewhere around 8 to 12 km it releases latent heat into the atmosphere and heats up the core.

The warm core becomes hotter.

If the cell releases latent heat above 15km this is a true hot-tower.

The rule of thumb is if a hot-tower fires, chances of rapid intensification is about 90% within 12 to 18 hrs.

So, bottom line is convection is going to drive where the LLC ends up in about 12 hrs from now.

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Entire Caribbean Theta-E Pool is Beginning to Rotate - We are Close. - JAC, 6/23/2010, 10:20 pm
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