Alex Postmortem. Its time to cut the BS and face facts.
Posted by
JAC on 6/26/2010, 7:49 pm
I am kicking back and looking at all the great posters on this board (and other boards), the models, and NHC.
There are some fundamentally good and basic questions being asked.
I have been around a few seasons and noticed a couple things here and there.
Here's what comes to my mind.
A lot of people are asking what's next for this season based on Alex's spin up yesterday and today.
Here's my take, and you can take it or leave it as you wish.
Alex just kissed the Cat 5 generator today and looked what happened.
CX, Conclue, and Target understand the full implications of this.
If Alex came in from Jamaica and ran due west at a Cat 1 going into the generator, he would be a Cat 5 coming out on the west side and would be shooting the Yucatan Channel.
Thank God that didn't happen today.
One thing you have to understand is dynamics of the atmosphere at the top of the troposphere.
To tell you the truth NHC doesn't.
Looking and comparing the basins all over the world for the past years, JTWC is light years ahead in understanding outflow channels.
For Pete's sake, even Jim Cantore can explain it better,
NHC blew it on 92L and 94L.
92L was a TD just before moving into the sub-tropical jet.
94L is a waste of an invest.
There are others on this board that think they know it all if they see a dotted line on a GOES Sat shot and can put a paragraph to it with some $100 high tech terms that nobody understands.
Believe me, I don't understand it and neither do they.
The models are totally f..d when it comes to Genesis.
Only consider them if a vast majority call Genesis; even then they are off by +/-24 hrs and +/- 300 miles.
Listen to Jim, he knows wtf he's talking about. Period.
A monster is coming off Africa and more to follow.
The Cat5 generator and Loop Current are in full force.
Water has the highest specific heat content as compared to land or air.
That means the Cat 5 generator will be at record OHC levels well into the winter.
When a TC makes CONUS land fall watch SREF and RUC models.
Storm Prediction Center uses them religiously and they are very accurate concerning parcel theory.
Mesoscale analysis is critical when a TC makes landfall.
We need to see if a convective cap is in place or not.
This has been a major issue when TCs like Rita, Ike, Katrina, etc. made landfall.
I don't think NHC understands this either.
That is MHO.
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Alex Postmortem. Its time to cut the BS and face facts. - JAC, 6/26/2010, 7:49 pm Post A Reply
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