Marginal Tornado Threat for Houston, No Watch Expected
Posted by JAC on 6/30/2010, 3:09 pm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0113 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...SW LA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
 
  VALID 301813Z - 301945Z
 
  AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
  TO UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD
  REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
 
  THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX ARE CURRENTLY
  LOCATED IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SE TX
  AND SW LA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL
  SHEAR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SW LA SWWD ALONG
  THE TX COAST. THE WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST SHOW 0-1 KM
  SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
  STORMS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TO
  THE WEST BRINGING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER INLAND. IN
  ADDITION...INSTABILITY MAY ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS AS SFC
  TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. THESE TWO FACTORS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
  TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER
  RAINBANDS OF ALEX.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 06/30/2010
 
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Good Chance Cat 2 Before Landfall - JAC, 6/30/2010, 10:57 am
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