Cyclone Formation Alert
Posted by
Jake on 7/17/2010, 1:30 pm
A few days ago, I made reference to a large tropical wave in the eastern atlantic and expected an increase in convection further west. Well, some moderate convection has begun to form on the NW portion of the wave in the form of a curved band. Strong cyclonic surface rotation is seen on visible images and covers a large radius.
Formation: A large Meso-scale complex has has formed overnight across the eastern carib and a few hundred miles north of PR. This mass of convection is shear induced/upper divergence, from the TUTT low center near 25N-65W. The basin west of 60W is embedded in an area of extreme deep layer moisture. The aforementioned tropical wave is currently under an upper level high which is now forecast by several models to expand and move in tandom with the wave. Moreover, the TUTT is forecast to retrograde northward allowing for upper ridging and decrease shear across the E carib / SW atlantic. The wave appears to have enough surface circulation, 850-700mb vorticity to trigger cyclogenesis in a few days as the upper pattern evolves into a more conducive environment under an area of increasing OHC.
Track: Feel that a tropical cyclone will form near the northern leeward islands from wave in the form of a trigger mechanism when it interacts with the convection/deep moisture in the eastern carib. It should move in a general W-WNW direction steered by a well established sub-tropical ridge under increasing OHC.
Note: This forecast is based on a model and my studies with tropical wave interactions in an evolving pattern. Lets see how this takes shape or not!!! |
253
In this thread:
Cyclone Formation Alert - Jake, 7/17/2010, 1:30 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.