Re: Conditions slowly becoming more conducive
Posted by
Jake on 7/18/2010, 1:10 pm
Morning / early afternoon visible images show an active area of moderate/strong convection near the northern leewards and east a few hundred miles. The wave / inverted surface trough has reached an area of extreme deep layer moisture in the eastern carib and extends north into the SW atlantic. The disturbance has been labled with a 10% chance of formation within 48hrs by the NHC and a more conducive upper environment in a few days.
The disturbance has been firing convection since it neared 60w where deep layer moisture and air is more unstable. In addition, lastest upper air data shows shear decreasing some and lifting north of 20N and a strengthening 850-700mb vorticity near 18N-60W. Moreover, an upper level high is following the system, as shear zone has been lifting / decreasing per upper air data. A look at the 0300 to 1500 indicate shear has slowly been retrograding during this time frame. And this can also be seen on WV images, which show the TUTT backing N-NWard and allowing upper ridging to build. Think this is the key, shear should decrease and become more anticyclonic as development should occur, but be slow. This will be greatly dependent on whether the disturbance can remain north of the greater antilles.
Note: If the core of convection remains north of the antilles and the expected upper high builds as expected over the system as it tracks WNW, we could have a more robust system approaching the SE Bahamas. Think NHC will up percentages later today. |
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Jake,
7/17/2010, 1:30 pm Post A Reply
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