14N 48W
Posted by JAC on 7/17/2010, 8:14 pm
Looks like vorticity and convection is picking up in this area.

Anti-cyclone is just to the west.

Agreed that this will most likely develop in the SW side of the TUTT.

Track, I think is still a little yet to be determined.

A deep shortwave will be moving across the eastern CONUS next couple days.

This could recurve it - maybe  a chance it could hit the islands or move into the Bahamas.









TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

CORRECTED TO ADD MOTION OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE ELSEWHERE
STATEMENT

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS





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Cyclone Formation Alert - Jake, 7/17/2010, 1:30 pm
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