91L Delayed Development---Hint of more southerly Carib--Keys track???
Posted by
jack ruby on 8/2/2010, 8:52 am
This system is slowly becoming more organized---and the NHC percentage of 80-90% is pretty much right on---reflecting almost inevitable cyclone formation in the near future. But the delay in development might be a cause for concern for those in S Fl and even westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now all models forecast an Atlantic system well east of Fl., but these pre-storm formation models are notoriously inaccurate. The low lat of this system--below 10N---and the absence of deep troughing ahead of it (yes there is troughiness and weakness to the NW of the system but its not very steep) would suggest only a gradual turn to the NW at most (IMHO). With any continued delay in development we might should expect a long term consistent move to WNW taking the storm near Puerto Rico and the lower Bahamas on a track toward the Keys and the Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html |
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91L Delayed Development---Hint of more southerly Carib--Keys track??? - jack ruby, 8/2/2010, 8:52 am Post A Reply
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