Re: climatology
Posted by Jackstraw on 8/10/2010, 4:18 am
I do agree that it is way to early to be saying the seasons a bust.  I also agree that it seems this season the NHC , at least publicly on their site (which is supposed to be official), seemsto be more automated.  There have been invests that we thought shouldn't have been and there have been blobs that we thought should have been.  So far this season we've had very weak storms, which are the hardest to predict. The NHC has been the best performing model especially on intensity.  Really, they have been very hesitant on anything and they have pretty much been right.  Jim argued 94l.  94l was almost guaranteed, in whatever form,  to move/form in the Gulf.  As strong as the steering currents have been in the Gulf by calling 94l when they did it bought 24 hours.  How long did it take Katrina to go from Naples to NO.  What did Katrina do when it did.  What did Rita do?  We're talking storms that cranked to cat 4 and 5 in 36 to 48 hours and where 36 to 48 hours from landfall. (Yes they were already systems but if I'm getting blasted with data that says something may form and in 36-48 hours it's going to hit up there?)  As a forecaster what do you do?  
I'm concerned that the NHC website is "acting" a bit more automated.  I'm more concerned that name tag meteorologists (really, do you know what you have to do to get that "official" tag on your local news?) read this crap and start selling Taco Bell.
As Fred posted it's been a long time since a major has hit the US.  We on this board don't need to get caught up in that.  This board for the most part, never has.  It's the real science of the weather here, and of course the fun.  Lets let it play out, and in December we can throw darts.. lots of 'em ;)

I believe they are just as puzzled as we are
121
In this thread:
reality check - BP31, 8/9/2010, 9:47 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.