Maybe
Posted by JAC on 8/17/2010, 2:26 pm
The problem so far has been that SAL was running along with this.

According to PREDICT, it is breaking off from SAL.

The TUTT could create a poleward outflow channel in 48 to 60 hrs.

It is moving into the west Carib with the highest heat-content water in the Atlantic.

I think it was wise NHC put a yellow circle up.

I am waiting to see higher rain-rate cells to fire to say for sure if this really develops or not.

What do you think?



PREDICT Weather Discussion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date(UTC): 2010/08/16 14:00
Author: J. Cordeira
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/08/17 12:01

DAY 1 (Next 24 hours) Outlook:
The focus over the next 24-hour period is on the development of
PGI27L (Fig. 7).  The maintenance of convection over the last 24
hours has suggested that PGI27L has been able to fend off any
intrusion of dry air from the near proximity of the SAL. Latest
satellite imagery and PW imagery suggests that PGI27L may be
beginning to separate from the SAL, to which it has been
seemingly coupled to along its leading edge the last 24-72
hours. The separation of PGI27L from the SAL, the warm SSTs of
the eastern Caribbean, and relatively low deep layer shear
values less than 5-10 m/s (not shown) all suggest potential for
development in the future. Tracks of the Pouch from the ECMWF
and GFS all have a more or less due westerly track, with the GFS
being slightly more equatorward with lower RH, lower PW values,
and higher deep-layer vertical wind shear. The GFS is likely
favoring a lag in the separation of PGI27L from the leading edge
of the SAL. Both the GFS and ECMWF place PGI27L to the south of
the Dominican Republic by 12Z/17.

For comparison the locations of the pouches with the 700-hPa
pouch-relative streamlines and 700-hPa Okubo-Weiss parameter
values are given in Figs. 8 and 9 for the ECMWF and GFS
(respectively) at 12Z/17 and 12Z/18. The discussion switched to
a focus on the location of these tracks relative to FIR
boundaries. A flight will take place tomorrow (17 August) with a
focal point based on a consensus over the two tracks at ~10Z/17,
with likely a companion flight at ~10Z/18. Flight tracks will
likely be augmented to stay within FIR boundaries.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 2 (24 - 48 hours) Outlook:
Looking ahead, PGI27L is likely to stay a coherent pouch through
18 August and with gradually increasing RH and PW values and
decreasing or steady deep-layer shear values. Farther east,
PGI30L will likely be a possible target for PREDICT by Saturday
(21 August). The ECMWF and GFS both track a pouch and strong
low-level relative vorticity maximum west-northwest and westward
through 120 hours (from 00Z/16)(Fig. 10). The GFS is suggesting
a Fujiwara effect with a vorticity maximum along the ITCZ and a
resulting strong disturbance near 40W by 12Z/21. The ECMWF is
less on board with this scenario and suggests a weaker, possibly
faster moving, disturbance at 40W by 12Z/21.




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27L Flaring in the East Carib, but can it hold on in 60 hrs - JAC, 8/17/2010, 7:43 am
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