CIMSS considers environment "good" as it moves into the West Carib
Posted by JAC on 8/17/2010, 10:43 pm
PGI27L slows down a little bit (from 8-10 m/s yesterday to ~ 8 m/s today), but is still the moving relatively faster than the other pouches.







Both NCEP/ECMWF show the development in vorticity and humidity in the following 3 days when PGI27L get in touch with the moist Carribean.





The environment for PGI27L now is fairly good for it to organize itself and develop.

Upper level divergence just sits on top of it with low shear (5-10 knots).

Carribean sea provides a good separation away from the dry air.

Although models concensus track show agreement on westward track, however, there is still possibility for it to curve to the north to the Gulf.

But either way, the environment are favorable for it to develop, so let's keep watching.

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27L Flaring in the East Carib, but can it hold on in 60 hrs - JAC, 8/17/2010, 7:43 am
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