HPC discussion
Posted by JAC on 8/19/2010, 1:25 pm
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
925 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

VALID 12Z MON AUG 23 2010 - 12Z THU AUG 26 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ACCOMPANYING 50 MEMBER
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 7.  ALL IN ALL...THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL FULL
LATITUDE COLD FRONT KNIFING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A
CLOSED...STACKED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HOLDING ITS GROUND...OR
SHOULD SAY OCEAN SURFACE...OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS A DISTINCT POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES...WHICH ALLOWS THE ATLANTIC TROUGH TO JUST SLOWLY SHEAR
APART IN PLACE...OR DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.  THE ECENS MEAN
IS STILL PERFORMING STRONGLY ENOUGH AT THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIME RANGE
TO RELY ON ITS VERSION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE.


CISCO


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31L Looks Good to Go - JAC, 8/19/2010, 7:08 am
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