CIMSS Discussion: "Some Interesting Developments with 31L"
Posted by JAC on 8/19/2010, 3:40 pm




A midlatitdue dry air outbreak over the middle of the Atlantic  and a cutoff low form a formidable environment for any crossing TDs, although both in front (27L) and behind (30,31 and 33L ) we find activity.

32L has been absorbed by a PV streamer reaching into the tropics.

27L continues to be convectively active but is moving across the Yucatan peninsula and into some upper level convergence and heightened shear associated with a small cutoff low.

PREDICT has completed two flights and it will serve as our first null case of the season.

30L is embedded in dry air and is tied to the northern branch of a pool of vorticity linked to 31 and 33L.

It is unlikely to develop.







31L is self aggregating with a large number of overshooting tops and well aligned upper divergence and lower vorticity and strong OW.

It is predicted to pass through some less favorable upper level dynamics and we will see if it can develop despite an increase in shear.

SSTs are exceptional and it will be interesting to see how it interacts with 33L which is co-located in the same vorticity pool and a merger is possible.



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31L Looks Good to Go - JAC, 8/19/2010, 7:08 am
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