Re: Question on Models and Patterns... wishcasting the models maybe
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/22/2010, 12:57 am
It is interesting that the HWRF is being very conservative. Even the GFDL is not going that crazy, though it is a lot higher than the HWRF.

The NHC seems to not be relying heavily on the intensity output from the models at the moment, calling for modest strengthening after three days when shear starts to increase some.

Intensity and shear forecast at 8PM EDT on August 21st from SHIPS model and finally the 11PM NHC forecast:

TIME (HR)              0      6     12    18    24     36      48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND      25    27    30    33    38     49      60    73    78    82    84    84     84
SHEAR (KT)           15     13    16    17    14     10      5      13    10    13    14    15     22
11PM EDT NHC       30      -     35     -    40      50     60      -     80     -     90    -      95
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Question on Models and Patterns... wishcasting the models maybe - BobbiStorm, 8/22/2010, 12:06 am
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