Re: Question on Models and Patterns... wishcasting the models maybe
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/22/2010, 1:10 am
LGEM: SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
From the NHC ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml ) about that model:
"Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)
LGEM is a statistical intensity forecast model that uses the same input as SHIPS but in the framework of a simplified dynamical prediction system, instead of a multiple regression. The evolution of the intensity is determined by a logistic growth equation that constrains the solution to lie between zero and the TC's maximum potential intensity (MPI), where the MPI is estimated from an empirical relationship with sea surface temperature (SST). The forecast of the maximum wind depends on the growth rate coefficient, which is estimated from a subset of the input to the SHIPS model. Ocean heat content and other parameters derived from geostationary satellites are also incorporated into the LGEM. An important difference from SHIPS is that the LGEM considers the variability in the environmental conditions over the length of the forecast while SHIPS does not; most of the SHIPS predictors are averaged over the entire forecast period, while the equivalent LGEM predictors are averaged only over the 24 hours prior to the forecast valid time. In addition, the MPI in the LGEM prediction is the instantaneous value, rather than the forecast period average used in SHIPS. These differences make the LGEM prediction more sensitive to environmental changes at the end of the forecast period, but also make the prediction more sensitive to track forecast errors. Since the LGEM model averages its predictors over a shorter time period, it is also better able to represent the intensity changes of storms that move from water to land and back over water relative to the SHIPS model."
I put together a model name page for the system I am working on:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?page=models
Kind of groups some of the models together though I don't have additional info about the models. |
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