PREDICT Synopsis
Posted by JAC on 9/7/2010, 9:56 am
PREDICT pouch synopsis

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Date (UTC): 2010/09/07 13:01
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/07 13:06
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/07 13:42
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Pouch Name: PGI42L        Official Name:        Initial Center Point: 12N   6W
Notes:

Two days ago, the models definitely favored PGI42L over PGI41L.
Yesterday, ECMWF was the only one that kept that same story.
Today, it seems that all of the models are back on the same page
by depicting PGI42L as the storm which absorbs PGI41L ... except
UKMET, which keeps them as separate, westward-moving pouches.

UPDATE: ECMWF just came in ... and the story is different!
Although PGI42L is initially a large pouch at analysis, ECMWF
dissipates PGI42L quickly as it approaches the west coast of
Africa, and only PGI41L moves out over the Atlantic.  So ECMWF
is different from the other models as well as its own previous
forecasts.

End result: ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS agree that one storm will
move over the Atlantic.  UKMET keeps both PGI41L and PGI42L.


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ECMWF:  Phase Speed: -6.3        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 24h
Either dissipates or is absorbed into PGI41L.
GFS:      Phase Speed: -8.4        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 120h
Absorbs PGI41L at 120 hours
UKMET:  Phase Speed: -7.4        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 120h
With the same phase speed as that of PGI41L, PGI42L tracks
merrily along behind PGI41L with no direct interaction between
them.
NOGAPS:  Phase Speed: -7.8        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h
Absorbs PGI41L quickly at 24 hours



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Other potential systems:
Next AEW still east of 10E.
90
In this thread:
Good Start for 41L Coming Off Africa - JAC, 9/7/2010, 7:26 am
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