Some areas could be above 20"
Posted by JAC on 12/25/2010, 6:13 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
538 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN BECOME A VERY INTENSE
STORM AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MONDAY MORNING. THE
LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY LATER MONDAY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
DEVELOP DURING MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ENDING UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z. THE 12Z
SUITE OF MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW AND
ITS PROGRESSION UP THE EAST COAST. NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS DRY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...MOVING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE NJ COAST BY 00Z MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE STORM. THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEY ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES RANGING FROM 979 TO 984MB AT 00Z
MONDAY. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE IMPACTS OF THE STORM /MOST OF
WHICH WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID-
MORNING...OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THEREBY MAKING TRAVELING
DIFFICULT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 2 TO
5 INCH RANGE.  MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...DANGEROUS STORM WILL POUND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. AT THE
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH THE GFS...NAM...RGEM...AND ECMWF ALL
RANGE FROM 965 TO 972 MB...EQUIVALENT PRESSURE TO THAT OF A
HURRICANE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES PLACE THE LOW OVER CAPE COD AND ARE
THE FARTHEST WEST. THE REMAINDER HAVE IT PASSING JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

THIS JUST-INSIDE-THE-BENCHMARK LOCATION MEANS THAT PROLIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND...WITH 15 TO 20 INCHES FORECAST THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 20 INCHES. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH HPC WWD AMOUNTS. MODEL PRECIPITATION WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE IN THAT CORRIDOR. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... A
BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
GET DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
WORST BETWEEN 7 PM AND ABOUT 4 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SNOW
MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES OF
3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND
WET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. THOSE WITH HEART CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
ATTEMPT TO SHOVEL IT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE ARE EXPECTING 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THOSE AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS LIQUID WATER
EQUIVALENT...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...THERE COULD BE A FLUFF FACTOR
GIVING A 15 TO 1 RATIO OF SNOW TO LIQUID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO 40 MPH IN GUSTS THERE
AT TIMES BUT SHOULD BE SHY OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA WHICH NEEDS 35 MPH
GUSTS NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FOR 3 STRAIGHT HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MORE OF A
FACTOR IN THOSE AREAS WITH SOMEWHAT FLUFFIER SNOW.

THE FORECAST IS MUCH TRICKIER OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. POPULATED THICKNESS GRIDS WITH COMBO
OF GFS/NAM. WARMING IN 925 MB TO 850 MB AREA OCCURS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z SUCH THAT INITIAL SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN AND NOT TURN
BACK TO SNOW UNTIL AROUND 4 AM...WHEN THE HEAVIEST MAY BE
DIMINISHING. GRIDS REFLECT 3 OR 4 INCHES ON BLOCK ISLAND AND THE
UPPER PORTION OF CAPE COD...BUT A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK
TO THE EAST WOULD MEAN MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE COD AND ALL OF THE
ISLANDS. IT IS NOT A BLIZZARD WARNING BECAUSE THE HIGHEST WINDS
MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD OF RAINFALL. AGAIN...THIS IS THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL NEED
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT MAY CAUSE THE WIND TO BLOW MORE
NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY WHICH COULD SPREAD COLD AIR FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS BEGUN
THE PHASING PROCESS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LIGHTNING
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO CONFIRMS ITS POTENCY.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO PREVENT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM HITTING
THE OUTER PORTION OF CAPE COD BUT THEY ARE LIKELY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...WILL SEE DRY BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S.  WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
THE TEENS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W-SW...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
BUT BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND 40
DEGREES BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...WITH HIGHS
WELL UP INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVING ASHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATE WITH
FLURRIES. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH BOS/BDL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DROPPING TO
IFR CONDITIONS BY ABOUT 21Z SUNDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 00-03Z MONDAY. EXPECT ROUGHLY 24
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN AREAS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND VFR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG A BDL TO BOS
LINE AND POINTS SOUTH FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS MAY BE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MAY
OCCUR PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING UP. N-NE WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO THE NW
MONDAY GUSTING TO 45 KTS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 TO 40 KTS AFTER SNOW HAS ENDED
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY
INTO S CENTRAL NH TO NE CT...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY LINGER
ACROSS E MA/RI AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LAST TO IMPROVE WILL
BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE QUICKLY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
WATERS SUNDAY. INCREASED WAVE WATCH SEAS BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT
SUNDAY AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOW.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GALE TO STORM FORCE N WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO NW DURING MONDAY. STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS WELL UP TO 50 KT. HAVE ISSUED A STORM WARNING FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS...STARTED WITH WAVEWATCH AND INCREASED THOSE
WAVE HEIGHTS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY 20 TO 40
PERCENT. THIS RESULTED IN WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 25 FEET ACROSS
STELLWAGEN BANK WITH WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE VISIBILITIES
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MOVING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL SEE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NW GALE FORCE GUSTS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  ON
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN IN
STRONG SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ALSO CONTINUE ON THE OUTER
WATERS MAINLY E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR FROM PLUM ISLAND TO
GLOUCESTER MA...HULL TO SANDWICH...AND THE EAST SIDE OF CHATHAM.
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS NEAR THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
WHICH IS AROUND 3 AM. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
    HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    MAZ022>024.
    WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-023.
    COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
    AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
    BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    MAZ005>007-012>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    NHZ011-012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    RIZ008.
    WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008.
    BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
    ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.
    STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
    ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FIELD
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...RLG/STRAUSS
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/FIELD



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Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above normal - Fred, 12/25/2010, 12:58 pm
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