Heavy Snow
Posted by JAC on 12/26/2010, 7:43 am











MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0309 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD...SRN DE
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 260909Z - 261515Z
 
  HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD FROM
  ERN NC INTO ERN VA BY 12Z AND INTO SRN MD AND SRN DE 12-15Z.
  HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIEST RATES WILL EXIST IN A 40-50 MILE
  BAND CENTERED GOLDSBORO NC-20NW NORFOLK VA-25N SALISBURY MD.  
 
  09Z SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST AS
  STRONG PV-ANOMALY BEGINS TO SWING ENE ACROSS SE GA/SRN SC. THE LOW
  IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNE OFF THE NC CAPE BETWEEN 12-15Z AND E OF
  NORFOLK VA BY 18Z WHILE UNDERGOING VERY RAPID STRENGTHENING.
  PRE-DAWN TREND OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER NC /DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
  COLUMN/ AND ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING /MAINTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL
  COLD ADVECTION/ WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-PROBABILITY OF ALL SNOW
  PRECIP-TYPE OVER THE REGION.  
 
  850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PEAK AFTER 12Z...PARTICULARLY FROM SE
  VA NEWD INTO SRN DE WITH SNOW BANDS LIKELY NARROWING AND
  INTENSIFYING OWING TO COINCIDENT MAXIMUM IN LARGER-SCALE VERTICAL
  MOTION.  IN FACT...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPRIGHT
  CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE.  THIS WILL
  ENHANCE SNOWFALL WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR.
 
  HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NJ AND THE NYC AREA BY
  EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
 
  ..RACY.. 12/26/2010






MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN
  NY...SWRN CT
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 261156Z - 261800Z
 
  HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS
  MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND
  FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z.  HIGHEST
  PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE
  CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN
  LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.
 
  DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX
  PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA.  THIS
  COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE
  OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND
  15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z.  THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
  WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF
  GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY
  BE CORRECT.
 
  TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
  CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE
  CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED
  THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY
  BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.
 
  ..RACY.. 12/26/2010
 


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Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above normal - Fred, 12/25/2010, 12:58 pm
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