Heavy Snow
Posted by
JAC on 12/26/2010, 7:43 am




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD...SRN DE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 260909Z - 261515Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD FROM ERN NC INTO ERN VA BY 12Z AND INTO SRN MD AND SRN DE 12-15Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIEST RATES WILL EXIST IN A 40-50 MILE BAND CENTERED GOLDSBORO NC-20NW NORFOLK VA-25N SALISBURY MD. 09Z SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST AS STRONG PV-ANOMALY BEGINS TO SWING ENE ACROSS SE GA/SRN SC. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNE OFF THE NC CAPE BETWEEN 12-15Z AND E OF NORFOLK VA BY 18Z WHILE UNDERGOING VERY RAPID STRENGTHENING. PRE-DAWN TREND OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER NC /DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN/ AND ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING /MAINTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/ WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-PROBABILITY OF ALL SNOW PRECIP-TYPE OVER THE REGION. 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PEAK AFTER 12Z...PARTICULARLY FROM SE VA NEWD INTO SRN DE WITH SNOW BANDS LIKELY NARROWING AND INTENSIFYING OWING TO COINCIDENT MAXIMUM IN LARGER-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION. IN FACT...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPRIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NJ AND THE NYC AREA BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 12/26/2010

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN NY...SWRN CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261156Z - 261800Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z. DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND 15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CORRECT. TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND. ..RACY.. 12/26/2010
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In this thread:
Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above normal -
Fred,
12/25/2010, 12:58 pm- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Fred, 12/26/2010, 11:17 am
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Tim_NC, 12/26/2010, 8:15 am
- Heavy Snow - JAC, 12/26/2010, 7:43 am
- Moisture Transport from GOM Picking Up - JAC, 12/25/2010, 6:28 pm
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Anung Mwka, 12/25/2010, 5:58 pm
- Blizzard Warning extended to Boston and Surroundings. 20" expected. - JAC, 12/25/2010, 5:55 pm
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Fred, 12/25/2010, 4:58 pm
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Fred, 12/25/2010, 4:03 pm
- Locked and Loaded - JAC, 12/25/2010, 3:39 pm
- Blizzard warning issued!!!!! - Fred, 12/25/2010, 3:35 pm
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Fred, 12/25/2010, 3:13 pm
- Re: Blizzard warning/watch to be issue at 4pm for tomorrow-mon.30-5omph winds,tides 3-6' above norma - Fred, 12/25/2010, 1:19 pm
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