Capping is key
Posted by JAC on 1/30/2011, 8:45 pm



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1117 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
 
  VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND NRN MEXICO
  DURING THE DAY ON MON...AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. AT
  THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SW TX...AND WILL
  TRANSLATE EWD INTO ERN TX BY 12Z TUE. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD
  FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 00Z...AND WILL
  SURGE SWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
  ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL YIELD
  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
  F...HELPING TO CREATE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
 
  ...CNTRL/NRN TX...
  CAPPING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE
  FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR W FROM NM INTO
  W TX. HOWEVER...BY AROUND 00Z...LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
  OVER NW TX NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...AND WHERE AN
  AXIS OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST FROM DAYTIME
  HEATING. IN ADDITION...A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
  WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR
  PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG...AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
  MIXED STORM MODES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 
  IN GENERAL...MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW W-E ZONE WILL BE MOST
  FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
  AND MOVES EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
  SEVERAL FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNCERTAINTY...INCLUDING
  CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
  PRECISE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. STORMS MOVING N OF THE COLD
  FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE THREAT OF WIND OR TORNADOES AS THE AIR MASS
  WILL BE QUITE STABLE. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
  WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL GIVEN
  SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND PERHAPS BRIEF TORNADOES. GIVEN
  STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STEEP
  LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS
  CNTRL TX.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 01/30/2011
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Conclues PDS Winter Storm - JAC, 1/30/2011, 8:07 pm
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