Severe Weather Outlook
Posted by JAC on 1/31/2011, 7:30 am


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1209 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
 
  VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
  PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
 
  ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
  AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST AND CNTRL TX WILL LIFT
  QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A STRONG COLD
  FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS EAST TX IN WHICH A SQUALL-LINE
  MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
  BOUNDARY. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLET OF THE LOW
  AND MID-LEVEL JETS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES
  INTO FAR EAST TX...WRN/NRN LA AND SRN/ERN AR AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH
  A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN
  THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S F ACROSS THE OZARKS
  SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE WITH A FAST
  MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE
  INCLUDED AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS LITTLE ROCK FOR THE SLIGHT RISK. IN
  THE ARKLATEX AND SRN OZARKS...THE SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
  FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON ON THE WEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED AND CONCENTRATED 60 TO
  70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
 
  FURTHER SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE LOWER MS
  VALLEY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE THE
  WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE OF HIGHER QUALITY THAN TO THE NORTH. THE
  GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SE LA WHERE FORECAST
  SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE PARCELS COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. A CLUSTERING OF SEVERE REPORTS WITH A
  FEW TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN MS
  AND THE MS DELTA ESPECIALLY IF A SQUALL-LINE CAN ORGANIZE AND
  PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
  JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT
  COULD BECOME ENHANCED BUT THIS MAY DEPEND UPON IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
  DISCRETE OR IF ROTATING STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LINE
  ITSELF. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS KEEP A CONVECTIVE
  SYSTEM GOING ACROSS AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
  IS THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST CLOSER
  TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 01/31/2011
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Conclues PDS Winter Storm - JAC, 1/30/2011, 8:07 pm
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