Severe Weather LA
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2011, 8:17 am


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0646 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...WCNTRL MS...SRN AR
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 011246Z - 011445Z
 
  STRONG PV-ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO E TX/SRN OK AT DAYBREAK.  INTENSE
  LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS
  RESULTED IN AN INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE OVER FAR E TX.  12Z SHV
  SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH
  ABOUT AN 800 METER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...RECENT
  STRENGTHENING OF STORMS AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
  IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  MEANWHILE...E OF THE LINE...E-W
  ORIENTED WARM ADVECTION DERIVED BANDS OF STORMS WERE
  DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER SRN AR AND NRN LA.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
  RATES AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
  PRODUCTION WITH THESE STORMS.
 
  IF STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE/INTENSIFY...PARTICULARLY THE SQUALL
  LINE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
 
  ..RACY.. 02/01/2011
 
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Megastorm cranking up - JAC, 2/1/2011, 8:14 am
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