Moderate chance for tornadoes - this should bow later today.
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2011, 11:40 am


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  840 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         MUCH OF LOUISIANA
         WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
  300 PM CST.
 
  TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
  TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF NATCHEZ
  MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD IN
  CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD FROM TX INTO
  LA...AND STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER TX/OK.  GRADUAL
  SURFACE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION BASED
  NEAR THE SURFACE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S...WHILE VERTICAL
  SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
  STRUCTURES IN THE LINE.  A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
  THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
  MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
 
 
  ...THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note:  See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

  SEL9
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  840 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         MUCH OF LOUISIANA
         WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
  300 PM CST.
 
  SEVERAL TORNADOES
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF NATCHEZ
  MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD IN
  CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD FROM TX INTO
  LA...AND STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER TX/OK.  GRADUAL
  SURFACE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION BASED
  NEAR THE SURFACE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S...WHILE VERTICAL
  SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
  STRUCTURES IN THE LINE.  A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
  THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
  MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
 
 
  ...THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


  SEL9
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  840 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         MUCH OF LOUISIANA
         WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
  300 PM CST.
 
  TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
  TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF NATCHEZ
  MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD IN
  CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD FROM TX INTO
  LA...AND STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER TX/OK.  GRADUAL
  SURFACE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION BASED
  NEAR THE SURFACE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S...WHILE VERTICAL
  SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
  STRUCTURES IN THE LINE.  A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
  THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
  MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
 
 
  ...THOMPSON

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

  WOUS64 KWNS 011436
  WOU9
 
  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 9
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  840 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  TORNADO WATCH 9 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR THE
   FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
 
  LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-033-037-039-
  041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-069-071-073-075-
  077-079-083-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113-
  115-117-121-125-127-012100-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.110201T1440Z-110201T2100Z/
 
  LA
  .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
 
  ACADIA               ALLEN               ASCENSION          
  ASSUMPTION           AVOYELLES           BEAUREGARD          
  BIENVILLE            CALCASIEU           CALDWELL            
  CAMERON              CATAHOULA           CONCORDIA          
  EAST BATON ROUGE     EAST FELICIANA      EVANGELINE          
  FRANKLIN             GRANT               IBERIA              
  IBERVILLE            JACKSON             JEFFERSON          
  JEFFERSON DAVIS      LAFAYETTE           LAFOURCHE          
  LA SALLE             LIVINGSTON          MADISON            
  NATCHITOCHES         ORLEANS             OUACHITA            
  PLAQUEMINES          POINTE COUPEE       RAPIDES            
  RICHLAND             ST. BERNARD         ST. CHARLES        
  ST. HELENA           ST. JAMES           ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
  ST. LANDRY           ST. MARTIN          ST. MARY            
  ST. TAMMANY          TANGIPAHOA          TENSAS              
  TERREBONNE           VERMILION           VERNON              
  WASHINGTON           WEST BATON ROUGE    WEST FELICIANA      
  WINN                
 
 
  MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-063-065-077-085-089-091-113-121-127-
  147-149-157-012100-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.110201T1440Z-110201T2100Z/
 
  MS
  .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 
  ADAMS                AMITE               CLAIBORNE          
  COPIAH               FRANKLIN            HINDS              
  JEFFERSON            JEFFERSON DAVIS     LAWRENCE            
  LINCOLN              MADISON             MARION              
  PIKE                 RANKIN              SIMPSON            
  WALTHALL             WARREN              WILKINSON          
 
 
  GMZ432-435-450-452-455-530-550-012100-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.110201T1440Z-110201T2100Z/
 
  CW
 
  .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
 
  CALCASIEU LAKE
 
  VERMILION BAY
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
  LA OUT 20 NM
 
  LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/LAKE MAUREPAS
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
  RIVER LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
 
  ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV...
 
 
 

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

  SAW9
  WW 9 TORNADO LA MS CW 011440Z - 012100Z
  AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
  60N HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 45S 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /37E MLU - 79SE LCH/
  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
  MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
 
  LAT...LON 32478958 29129047 29129379 32479301
 
  THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
  FOR WOU9.
 

Watch 9 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 9

VALID 011540Z - 011640Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW POE
TO 15 SSE IER TO 40 W MLU.

..PETERS..02/01/11

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...JAN...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-021-023-025-029-033-037-039-041-
043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-069-071-073-075-077-
079-083-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113-115-
117-121-125-127-011640-

LA
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA       ALLEN   ASCENSION      
ASSUMPTION      AVOYELLES   BEAUREGARD      
CALCASIEU      CALDWELL   CAMERON      
CATAHOULA      CONCORDIA   EAST BATON ROUGE    
EAST FELICIANA      EVANGELINE   FRANKLIN      
GRANT       IBERIA   IBERVILLE      
JACKSON       JEFFERSON   JEFFERSON DAVIS    
LAFAYETTE      LAFOURCHE   LA SALLE      
LIVINGSTON      MADISON   NATCHITOCHES      
ORLEANS       OUACHITA   PLAQUEMINES      
POINTE COUPEE      RAPIDES   RICHLAND      
ST. BERNARD      ST. CHARLES  ST. HELENA      
ST. JAMES      ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY      
ST. MARTIN      ST. MARY   ST. TAMMANY      
TANGIPAHOA      TENSAS   TERREBONNE      
VERMILION      VERNON   WASHINGTON      
WEST BATON ROUGE     WEST FELICIANA  WINN      
$$


MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-063-065-077-085-089-091-113-121-127-
147-149-157-011640-

MS
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS       AMITE   CLAIBORNE      
COPIAH       FRANKLIN   HINDS      
JEFFERSON      JEFFERSON DAVIS  LAWRENCE      
LINCOLN       MADISON   MARION      
PIKE       RANKIN   SIMPSON      
WALTHALL      WARREN   WILKINSON      
$$


GMZ432-435-450-452-455-530-550-011640-

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CALCASIEU LAKE

VERMILION BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/LAKE MAUREPAS

COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low


Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (10%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
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Megastorm cranking up - JAC, 2/1/2011, 8:14 am
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