Re: NAM has a wicked forecast for Oklahoma City
Posted by JAC on 5/24/2011, 5:58 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL DEVELOP TODAY... BOTH WITH THE HIGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

STRONG UPPER TROF OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS BEGINNING ITS MOVE
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS TO COME
OUT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KNOT 500 MB JET NOSING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A 110 KNOT 300 MB JET INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO ABOUT 992 MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE IN TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MOST LIKELY TO NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE US-81 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA /INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/ AT HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SEE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING... AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES EAST TO WILBARGER AND
BAYLOR. INFORMATION FROM THE STATE FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATE THAT
SUFFICIENT GREENING MAY HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THAT RED FLAG MAY NOT BE NECESSARY THERE... BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE EXTREMELY LOW RH EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.

STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED... BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
68
In this thread:
OK & KS Under High Risk for Severe Weather Today - JAC, 5/24/2011, 5:44 am
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