Re: PDS issued, but of course
Posted by JAC on 5/24/2011, 2:37 pm



VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
 
  STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
  HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
  AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
 
 
  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
  DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
  THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
  IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
  SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
  OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
  EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
  KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
  STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
  WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
  PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
  STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
  450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
  OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
 
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OK & KS Under High Risk for Severe Weather Today - JAC, 5/24/2011, 5:44 am
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