Re: Models shifting east?
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/2/2011, 6:40 pm
I think if we look closely we'll see that, while the GFDL did shift east, the HWRF shifted WEST. The UK made a huge change, but doesn't appear to be properly initialized; note the starting point for its plot and initial direction. That's NOT Emily, whatever it may be. UK will shift back to a NW track near its previous and the GFDL will jump behind the HWRF model in the morning run, I do believe. That will make the official forecast on the EAST side of the dynamic guidance. They won't leave it out there. Even then, it still looks fishy, but storms coming west of 80 and north of 25 are more pressing than models, if it gets there. Emily will be fishing ON the shelf and not in the deep blue, perhaps.
Again, I have to believe there is still a lot of west shift in the next 24 hours and it won't take much to miss Hispanola, though I do note that NHC doesn't give a hint of that thinking and they are good at this. One shift of the GFDL and I think they will move it. Just the almost guaranteed bounce back of the UK should do it with NHC's own model staying where it is now.
I think the models "lost" it with no movement earlier. They probably interpret the pause in westerly motion as the start of a turn and that's not what has happened in the last few hours....280 at 12. I suspect it's already missed early points on all models to the SW.
|
159
In this thread:
Models shifting east? -
beachman80,
8/2/2011, 2:54 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.