Re: 2 pm - Avila's take
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/6/2011, 2:49 pm
After all is said and done, we expected (DAYS ago) that it would be right where it is now, give or take a couple of degrees of longitude, and about to head north while trying to strengthen.....About all that is left is how much final longitude and how much, if any, strengthening. It really hasn't been a surprise despite the slow strengthening, land-shattering, and bouncing models.....Land strikes, dissipation, strong storm, and pure fish were always smaller possibilities. IT was to be a relatively weak Bahamas system with some Florida impact and "gravity" for Atlantis between Bermuda and the Carolinas. Maybe less Florida impact and south of Atlantis, but that remains to be seen.
There may be a close-hand opportunity RIGHT NOW to gather data about the difference between "steering currents" at different altitudes. NOAA...You ON it? We saw the reverse directions of the same phenomena south of Hispanola. It's a second chance to quantify it for the models.
We might also note that the "easterly" and "westerly" highways may be a little low this year....at least for now. The no-man's-land is usually above the Bahamas and may be later, but we have seen this storm look like a late-season storm at those lattitudes while it is still below the Bahamas. I think the big jet's data should reflect something like that. A good Carolinas-Bermuda-P.R.-Jamaica-Miami run would be useful.
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