Re: predictions
Posted by LawKat on 8/10/2011, 12:45 pm
First of all, we are not halfway through the hurricane season.  80% of the season's activity occurs after September 1.  Therefore, we are barely one quarter through the season, activity-wise.

Second, predictions are just that.  The predicted numbers have been just about dead on or close to it the past few seasons.  Dodging a bullet on landfalls does not make the season inactive.  19 storms last year is a nearly 100% increase over an average year.

As far as I know, while some forecasters give chances that a region will get hit against the historical average, most preface all predictions by saying that landfall can not be estimated nor calculated with any accuracy and is not therefore a predicted variable.

I'm not some NHC apologist, but it's the same old argument.

A season with 30 named storms, that are tropical storms and no landfalls, is what would be considered a busy season.  The population doesn't see destruction and the season is said to have been a bust, predictions off, and over-hyping, though none of that would be accurate.

A season with only 1 named storm that becomes a Cat 5, and wipes out Miami and New Orleans, or Miami and Houston, would be considered a busy season by the population, even though it would statistically be the most inactive season on record.
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predictions - donh, 8/10/2011, 12:27 pm
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