Re: How strong can Irene get before reaching us here in S. Florida?
Posted by
Conclue on 8/20/2011, 11:25 pm
Good points Gianmarc. In situations where your guess is as good as a roll of the dice in vegas the methodology is becoming increasingly dependent upon ensemble forecasting. This is different from the models that we see as a spagetti plot. These are similar but are from the same model but with various initializations to yield as many possible results as possible. By doing this you are able to eliminate the least probable outcomes and take a blend of the resulting solutions and forecast from there. This is the best strategy at times like this. Models suck at land interction for the most part. It seems as though larger systems such as Irene respond slower to land interactions but can also delay reintesnification too.
At times, larger systems that go over relatively small ammounts of land are often times not as disrupted as smaller systems.
It's really a wait and see game when the track is this complicated as it pertains to intensity. It could be a disfigured cat 4 if takes the 12z run of the GFS from yesterday which offered a minimal land interaction while keeping the center over water or it could be a weak hurricane/TS if it were to take this evenings 18Z GFS. And this is only one model and one set of initializations. We just don't have the ability to say what will happen but range of possibilities could happen.
We gotta get better data, data assimilation and computer power to get better at intensity. |
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