Re: How strong can Irene get before reaching us here in S. Florida?
Posted by Conclue on 8/21/2011, 1:27 pm
Shalista you are looking at a only a piece of the atmospheric colum here, a small layer below mid level to the surface.

Consider this 300mb - 850mb deep layer analysis....



There is far less steeering due west as suggested by the map of I think you had 700mb - 850mb and that is only a very small layer of the atmosphere.

With the broad ridge over Texas/Southern CONUS eroding away and shift west allows for a weakness in the flow which could allow Irene to move north towards Florida. When there isn't large scale synoptic steering in place, broad systems tend to move northward due to a bunch of complicated physics which i won't bother getting into, LOL.

Also, the Atlantic ridge is also the bigger player here because depending upon how strong it is over the next couple days will be a bigger player in steering flow than anything else. The shortwave trough forecasted to move into the NE CONUS is playing a role in eroding the Atl ridge, but nonetheless it opens up a gap by which Ireene is free to move to her hearts content between these two ridges. It will all depend on how the larger scale synoptic pattern evolves.
79
In this thread:
How strong can Irene get before reaching us here in S. Florida? - weatherwizard, 8/20/2011, 7:07 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.