Re: Redevelops Further North... official
Posted by TuffyE on 8/21/2011, 7:33 am
...if that's the way they want to describe it.  It looks to me like it simply gained some latitude. Look at the past wind field.   Anyway, it is back near 280 now but still isn't strong enough to track/forecast at our best.    The UK and GFD models are really out-of-character on this one; consistent western outliers, they usually arent'....Okay, the GFD isn't usually, anyway.  They must know something, but, IMO, the real model IS the HWRF and it is the eastern outlier.  NHC remains respectful of the elders and this one is subject to being too REAL to let Fla off the hook anyway.  

It sure seems to me like the energy is going to be on the north side of PR and Hispanola.  I would suggest that would be minimizing the impact to the storm and allowing serious development enroute to the Bahamas.  Strong, high, and wet, she would look to me like she was coming to the Carolinas.  If she's not all the way back to very near 270 soon, she'll be a real problem for the Bahamas and them.  If she is, and they all think so based on the initialization used, I'm with the flow and thinking South Florida and Hispanola's effect.  I'll have to concede that as the most likely, but not if she really develops today..TWC says recon within an hour?  That true?  
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Redevelops Further North... official - BobbiStorm, 8/21/2011, 1:54 am
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