Re: Redevelops Further North... official
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/21/2011, 9:08 am
It's good for South Florida though. With all the troughiness off the eastern seaboard there's no way this thing just keeps on marching west once it emerges north of PR. The worst case scenario for South FL would have been the existing forecast path taking it up out of the Caribbean and over eastern Cuba on its way into South Florida. NHC forecast discussions all have mentioned a WEAKENING ridge over the southeast US at that point in the forecast period, not a strengthening one.

From the most recent forecast discussion:
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.

You need a strong secondary ridge over the SE US to compliment a strong Bermuda high if you're going to get a South Florida storm. Right now we really don't have much of either--we've all seen stronger Bermuda highs than the one we see right now--and all three forecast discussions thus far have spoken of a weakening ridge in Irene's future.
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Redevelops Further North... official - BobbiStorm, 8/21/2011, 1:54 am
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