Re: NHC blew intensity forecast BADLY...why
Posted by
Conclue on 8/23/2011, 1:05 am
Yes, and it's because of NHC using a blend of "Ifs" to get their forecast that's making their intensities off. They did the same thing with Ike. It's not like the NHC isn't discussing what we are. That and then some you know?
Honestly the way around the problem with all forecasting is turning to probabilistic forecasting which is becoming more common but still in it's infancy. You wanna make estimates on certain things happening and letting the public know that rather than saying "this is the average of what could happen" and give one solution you say....
60% chance of intensification to major hurricane strength within 48 hours.
40% chance of hurricane strength Irene
we're not there yet, this is just an example though.
NHC is awesome at track even out to 3 -4 days out in skill accuracy. It's intensity that they are not great with and alot of it has to do with the way they soo often have to deal with storms interacting with the islands. They're accuracy rate in intensity is superior in the EPAC then the Atlantic. |
55
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.