Re: Not good according to Dr Knabb
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/25/2011, 10:36 am
I think Isabelle is increasingly looking like an accurate comparison. Irene has never really intensified as much as expected, and as we've seen with other, more powerful storms in seasons' past, some hurricanes never completely recover from an EWRC, which Irene underwent starting yesterday afternoon.

Despite the pressure falling a bit overnight to 950, recon has been struggling to find winds stronger than 100 kts since yesterday, and even that looks generous. Now with shear forecast to gradually increase for the duration of this storm's life, I think a Cat 2 for NC is about right, with a strong Cat 1 blowing into the northeast.

The thing that worries me with this storm is its size, because that will exacerbate the storm surge. Though Katrina was a Cat 3 at landfall, she still brought a Cat 5 storm surge to the coast, due in part to its large size.
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Track shifts west: Outer Banks and Long Island - Zephyr, 8/25/2011, 7:18 am
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