Re: Underestimating Intensity?
Posted by
Conclue on 8/25/2011, 5:59 pm
Well normally I would agree with you but if there's one thing I've learned over the years here tracking systems with you all is that the larger the storm the more difficult NHC (and everyone else for that matter) to accurately forecast intensity, be it weakening or strengthening but especially with strengthening. The past several years RI has seem to be the norm with many systems that become large in size and so forth.
While I agree currently everything suggests just a 3 at this point, potentially 4. Many times big storms that keep expanding their wind field take longer to get really cranking and most of them in the past few years saw their time cut short with the exception of really Ike who was totally mutalated structurally by Cuba.
Agree? Disagree?A 5 may be pushing it, but I do see her being at least a 4 at some point. There's been storms where we all go to bed talking about "should be a cat 2 tomorrow" and wake up and were discussing category 4 ........ and wondering what the hell?
Just seems to occur alot and models don't pick up on it since the ocean waters have been so warm this past decade. Food for thought. |
87
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.