Re: Underestimating Intensity?
Posted by
ArgosyTn on 8/25/2011, 6:06 pm
I think the shear size of Irene it will be hard for her to maintain more than cat 3. The Gulf stream usually will maintain a hurricane but not to RI.
Good hot water and anticyclone just about in front of her should enable intensification. Only fly in ointment is a TUTT in the eastern GOM that is crimping Irene's outflow channel on her SW flank. The important one, the poleward is still going strong. Also, a new ULL is forecast to reinforce the poleward outflow channel just before she makes landfall. Currently watching for a good strong hot-tower tonight with D-max you never know?
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