NEW YORK -- Forecasters said passing near Manhattan could lead to a nightmare scenario: shattered glass falling from skyscrapers, flooded subways and seawater coursing through the streets.
In the last 200 years, New York has seen only a few significant hurricanes. In September of 1821, a hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street, the southernmost tip of the city. The area now includes Wall Street and the World Trade Center memorial.
In 1938, a storm dubbed the Long Island Express came ashore about 75 miles east of the city on neighboring Long Island and then hit New England, killing 700 people and leaving 63,000 homeless.
Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, worries about a storm surge coming into Manhattan, home to some of the most valuable real estate in the country. He noted pictures from a 1944 hurricane where police in Midtown, where Times Square, Broadway theaters and the Empire State Building are located, were standing in waist-deep water.
"This is going to have a lot of impacts well away from the coastline," Fugate said. "A little bit of damage over big areas with large populations can add up fast."
In Lower Manhattan, few seemed preoccupied with preparations.
"I live on the 10th floor of a 30-story building," said Sam Laury, who lives in Battery Park City, one of the areas that Bloomberg said might be evacuated. "I'm sure I'll be fine."
Irene is a large storm, with tropical storm-force winds extending nearly 300 miles from its center. And the storm could hit at a time when high tides reach their highest levels, which could amplify flooding in a city built around bays and rivers. Some experts predict a storm surge of five feet or more. Lower Manhattan could see streets under a few feet of water.
"In many ways, a Category 2 or stronger storm hitting New York is a lot of people's nightmare, for a number of reasons," said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina.
Even if the winds aren't strong enough to damage buildings made largely of brick, concrete and steel, a lot of New York's subway system and power lines are underground. The city's airports are close to the water, too, and could be inundated, as could densely packed neighborhoods. Hospitals were told to make sure generators were ready.
Poised to brush one of the most densely populated parts of the country, Irene could cause billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, said Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. |