Re: I feel like we (Texas) are about to get teased... Damn High Pressure ridge better stay East!!!
Posted by Will_TX on 8/30/2011, 6:23 pm
Would like to have hope but it sucks when there is nothing certain even 48 hrs away.

TROFINESS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN STILL FCST TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND INTO THE W/NW GULF IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS ALL STILL
POINTING TOWARD VARYING TYPES OF DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE UPPER TX/WRN LA COAST TOWARD EARLY FRI.
FROM THERE...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLNS/TRACKS RANGING FROM CNTL LA ALL THE WAY TO S TX.
THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS NOTHING HAS FORMED YET AND UNTIL IF/WHEN
SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...MODELS WILL LIKELY SHOW DRASTIC RUN-TO-RUN
GUESSES (BOTH STRENGTH AND POSITION).

SINCE WE DO NEED TO PUT OUT SOME SORT OF FORECAST...WE CURRENTLY
ARE GOING TO PUT THE HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT AS
IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT (POSITIONING-WISE), MAKES THE MOST
SENSE, AND IS GENERALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES. IT HAS
BEEN MORE-OR-LESS MEANDERING A CIRCULATION AROUND THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OFFSHORE THRU THE WEEKEND, THEN EVENTUALLY TAKES IT SW EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW (& MAYBE A
WEAK COOL FRONT?).

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST? THAT IT`S QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ASSUMING THE ABOVE SCENARIO VERIFIES IT WOULD MEAN HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF I-10 AND LESS/IF ANY PRECIP WELL
INLAND. ALSO MEANS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE *LOOKOUT* FOR A
PROLONGED COASTAL FLOOD EVENT (A LA TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS 1998
SCENARIO) WITH PROLONGED FETCH OF E/NE WINDS & ELEVATED SEAS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REALIZE FOLKS HAVE PLANS FOR THE UPCOMING LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST IS BOUND TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. WOULDN`T
NECESSARILY CANCEL ANY PLANS JUST YET...BUT WOULD DEFINITELY KEEP
UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THX FOR COORDINATION TX/LA COASTAL OFFICES.  47

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BOC next week? - cypresstx, 8/28/2011, 9:44 am
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