Re: Bay of Campeche/Yucatan
Posted by Skip Wiley on 6/4/2012, 9:58 pm
Thanks, I was wondering what was up the the GOM.

The rainy season seems to have left south Florida if it was ever really here on the west coast.

Hopefully it holds together.  Last Friday WFO Miami has us under a flood watch with forecasted rain amounts 2-5".  Then poof nothing... We got a trace of rain in Naples.  Check out the discussion below.  I have not seen a forecast blown so bad in a long time that was not associated with a TC.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.UPDATE...SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELPING TO LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IN TURN IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, THIS IS
COMING IN LINE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR
AND FOR THESE REASONS IT APPEARS THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED. THE HRRR WHICH HAS ACTUALLY BEEN OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY FORECASTS THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
DISCUSSION. SO FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS TO
ONLY SCT LEVELS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CANCEL THE FFA FOR ALL
OF S FL.

KOB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/

AVIATION...TSRA MOVG OFSHR ATTM AND VCSH THRU 02Z WITH PSBL
REDVLPMNT TOWARD 12Z WITH VCTS AFT 16Z. OTRW...VFR E COAST FOR THE
MOST PART. SFC WNDS BCMG SW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
PERSISTING. ATTM GUIDANCE INDICATES NO E COAST SEA BRZE SATURDAY.
AT KAPF....VCSH OVRNITE INTO SATURDAY AND PSBL MVFR CIGS BUT NOT
IN TAFS ATTM. SFC WNDS SW 10 KTS OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS
GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST
OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.
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Bay of Campeche/Yucatan - LawKat, 6/4/2012, 10:32 am
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