Re: Landfall..............?
Posted by
Gianmarc on 6/24/2012, 1:52 pm
I think we're being unfair and unreasonable. While death and taxes are widely advertised as life's unwavering certainties, I'll add a third: Day One forecast cones for any tropical system are bound to disappoint. It is rather routine for forecast cones to adjust off of the day one track; nothing particularly unusual has happened with Debby in that regard.
Secondly, we have had a squashed spider of model runs with this system due to remarkably weak steering currents right now. I think the NHC has done the best it could given that scenario.
Thirdly, it is exceedingly difficult for models to properly initialize a system with such a broad, weak LLC, which I think is a big reason why rampant uncertainty has pervaded the models on this system thus far and the NHC has characterized its own forecasts as "low confidence."
The erroneous suggestion that this is a "hurricane" is a good example of how off-the-handle we're flying with our criticism of the NHC today. Serenity now! |
152
In this thread:
Landfall..............? -
BobbiStorm,
6/24/2012, 12:54 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.