Isaac very confusing
Posted by LawKat on 8/23/2012, 3:55 pm
One minute he blows up cloud tops topping -80C.  The next minute (as in now and yesterday), he sucks in dry air and nearly dies.  

I think you are seeing yet another center reformation, just as with last night into this morning that is west and south of the current (estimated) center.  Keep in mind, that the NHC has no actual center with which they are tracking this storm, but rather a mean center, which is an average of the total circulation.

This is Ernesto all over again.  I'm alive again, I'm dead again.  

Second issue is that the trough is starting to lose energy on its southwest periphery.  The EURO may be catching this and why it is the far west outlier.  Unsure, but certainly plausible.  In other words, if Isaac doesn't deepen soon, the trough will bypass him and Isaac bypass it.

I stick with the idea that his future is going to be grounded in the passage of the island chains and deepening.  When he does it and how much trough is left are going to be key.

No one is out of the woods, and to say so would be disingenuous.  Isaac may still die out, after all, he still hasn't passed the monster killer Hispaniola, but he may turn into a major hurricane.

Saturday is still my breakwater mark for knowing pretty well where Isaac's approximate final destination will be.

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Isaac very confusing - LawKat, 8/23/2012, 3:55 pm
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