Up to 60% chance in 48 hours, 80% within 5 days as of 8pm on Thursday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/21/2014, 7:50 pm
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Beven"

Graphically:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - Jake, 8/21/2014, 6:55 pm
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