Re: 80% chance in 48 hrs; 90% chance in 5 days as of 8pm Friday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2014, 1:54 am
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that the area of disturbed
weather near Hispaniola still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation.  However, thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable
for the development of a tropical depression or storm today or
Sunday.  This system is forecast to move west-northwestward over or
near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central
Bahamas on Sunday.  Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.  Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Central
Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.
Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahama Islands
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown"

2 day outlook with satellite image of center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

5 day with formation area drawn:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It's getting better organized:
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=600&height=400&info=ir&zoom=1&palette=ir3.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=19&lon=-70
180
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Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - Jake, 8/21/2014, 6:55 pm
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