Re: oops... Posted intensity graph twice
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/27/2016, 12:35 pm
The problem is that it overdevelops things that have yet to develop:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&fh=96
It may eventually get it right, but it just doesn't do well until something is developed.
Since it often shows very strong hurricanes from invests, I don't know if you could make any determination based on comparing its forecasts between invests. If it constantly shows a very strong storm for one invest and for another invest it shows a much weaker storm, or less frequently a strong storm, could that mean the first invest is more likely to become stronger if it develops? I don't know. Perhaps it could be seen as what could happen if it developed and everything was rather perfect if it shows a strong storm, but not giving any indication of the likelihood of actually developing. I don't know.
Given 99L's persistence, I would lean toward it developing. Into what, when and where it goes I don't know. It depends at what point shear relaxes, if it does, and then how the rest of the environment is. |
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