Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents
Satellite floaters:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL142018
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018
The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve
overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an
area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible
imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The
aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most
recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level
winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this
advisory.
Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that
direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a
little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After
that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of
intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly
shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track
keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast
U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm
through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical
low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.
Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving
a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm
crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should
turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central
United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has
decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in
how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF
and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still
much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the
guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,
and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The
post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based
on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.
Key Messages:
1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.
2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.
3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018
...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.
Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown |