Re: Hurricane Michael at 10am CDT Monday: 75mph; 982mb; N at 7mph; Forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane
Posted by
Beachlover on 10/8/2018, 12:46 pm
James g, just for clarification, here's the exact, full quote from the 10 a.m. CDT NHC Discussion as posted above by Chris (BBM):
The hurricane should move northward or
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm
crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should
turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central
United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has
decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in
how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF
and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still
much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the
guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,
and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time.
Yes, we're remaining alert, understanding that "should" is the operative word, but all indications are the center of Michael will not be making a wild swing west. While intensity forecasts remain somewhat unreliable, track forecasts at 48 hours have improved greatly in recent years. I, for one, feel reasonably confident we'll be OK here on Pensacola Beach, especially since surge (our greatest concern) is only predicted at one to three feet. |
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