6am AST Tues: T. D. Fifteen forms SW of Cape Verde in east Atlantic; Forecast to be short lived & be no threat to land
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/9/2018, 6:14 am
NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Satellite floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL152018
More Atlantic imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 29.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 29.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected tonight and that
general motion should continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the
low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth
one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications
from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a
little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable
oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant
increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the
depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official
forecast predicts dissipation accordingly.
The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a
well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The
depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in
that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves
toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that
Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and
becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models
are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi |
79
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6am AST Tues: T. D. Fifteen forms SW of Cape Verde in east Atlantic; Forecast to be short lived & be no threat to land - Chris in Tampa, 10/9/2018, 6:14 am Post A Reply
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