| NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Tides: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ Radar: https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EVX&type=N0R&num=10&delay=50&showlabels=1&showstorms=1&lightning=1 Long radar loops from Brian McNoldy: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ Radar South Florida Water Management District: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions Satellite: Mesoscale IR floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=28N&lon=86W&band=13&length=30 From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO.php?sat=G16&lat=28N&lon=86W More floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL142018 Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb (27.67 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h). SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven Public advisory from an hour earlier: Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT. Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Discussion: Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been 136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours, with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west. The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough across the central United States. These features should cause the hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should be rushed to completion. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. 2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane- force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |