Re: track moved west slightly
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/10/2018, 8:10 am
| At least people did have warning that something was coming. The intensity forecast on this one was a big miss early on though. Something to discuss later is why some of the models didn't pick up on this storm, like the GFS. (It took until the 12Z forecast on October 5th before it showed a storm, just 5 days out.) All the NHC forecasts, through 4am CDT Wednesday track, which is noted with highlighted line:  O/T: The 0 hour on that time in the image is at 1am CDT (6Z), but then there is a position 3 hours later at 4am CDT which was the 4am CDT official position. Forecast advisory includes that three hour prior position: "REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.6W" |
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5am CDT Wednesday: 140mph; 937mb; N at 13mph; Hourly position updates by the NHC - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 6:43 am
- Radar and Satellite - tvsteve, 10/10/2018, 7:37 am
- it looks west of the updated track ? - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 8:05 am
- Re: it looks west of the updated track ? - tvsteve, 10/10/2018, 8:45 am
- it looks west of the updated track ? - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 8:05 am
- 7:20am EDT Wednesday: 935mb sonde, 21 knots of surface wind - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:34 am
- Recon images - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:44 am
- Re: Recon images - tvsteve, 10/10/2018, 7:47 am
- Recon images - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:44 am
- 6:55am EDT Wednesday: 936mb sonde, 24 knots of surface wind - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:30 am
- 6:54am EDT Wednesday: SFMR 10 second average estimated surface wind from recon: 144mph - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:05 am
- thinking of that poor clerk in Jim's hotel - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 7:15 am
- Re: thinking of that poor clerk in Jim's hotel - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:27 am
- approx 3.5 ft above forecast (currently) - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 7:30 am
- Re: thinking of that poor clerk in Jim's hotel - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2018, 7:27 am
- thinking of that poor clerk in Jim's hotel - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 7:15 am
- track moved west slightly - cypresstx, 10/10/2018, 7:04 am
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