Re: Confirm or debunk??
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/11/2018, 5:36 pm
Even if "were 200 knots" was "were 200 mph" it can't be known, yet. It's possible there could have been high gusts we don't know about yet, but you can't say it with certainty until ground surveys are done and that might find evidence of higher wind gusts.

The 11am EDT advisory before landfall:

"ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT."

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al14/al142018.fstadv.016.shtml?

That is 144mph and 173mph and rounding up to 145 mph (sustained) and 175mph (gusts).

Those are from the forecast advisory which is every 6 hours. Then the storm strengthened to 155mph. I don't know what the official gusts would have been. Perhaps 185mph? They don't have gusts in the position updates or intermediate advisories.

I will note that SFMR readings from recon, a 10 second surface estimate, only found up to 138 knots (159 mph) and technically it was noted as suspect. (though I think wrongly) Those are released every 30 seconds in an HDOB message. I think that 10 second reading is the highest 10 second average in that 30 seconds. I like to look for two readings in a row to see what might be a closer estimation of a 1 minute surface wind. The NHC usually sets the advisory wind at the value of the SFMR, assuming I guess that higher winds were missed and that the 10 second estimate is a good enough estimation to make it the 1 minute sustained value. (which is why there might be a chance it gets upgraded to 160mph or perhaps based on ground surveys)

I think gusts are 3 second winds. But I can't recall. But from that 10 second SFMR value you could assume there was a variety of winds higher and lower to get that 10 second average. Perhaps there was a 3 second value in there that was 15 or 20 mph higher, just as a guess. And maybe they missed some higher winds.

But while there might be something approaching 200 mph as a possibility (perhaps in a mesovortices), definitely not sustained. And until research is done, no one can say with certainty about the gusts.
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Confirm or debunk?? - Beachlover, 10/11/2018, 2:51 pm
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